Flávio Bolsonaro Stuns Pollsters to Top Brazil's First Round, Forcing Runoff With Lula

Senator Flávio Bolsonaro beat the forecasts of most private surveys to finish ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil's presidential election on Sunday, sending the two into a runoff on October 25.

With 98.81% of votes counted, Bolsonaro had 47.24% to Lula's 44.91%, the BBC reported. Neither reached the more than 50% of valid votes needed for an outright win. The electoral court had Bolsonaro on just over 55.8 million votes to Lula's nearly 53.2 million, according to The Associated Press.

Pollsters caught out

Private surveys before the vote had forecast Lula leading the first round by around three percentage points, Reuters reported.

"The pollsters missed badly," said Robert Muggah, cofounder of think tank Igarape Institute, according to Reuters. "Expect the runoff polls, which show a dead heat, to understate Bolsonaro as well."

Earlier on Sunday, Bolsonaro told journalists in Rio de Janeiro he was counting on "a protest vote from people who would otherwise vote for another candidate but are opposed to Lula," Reuters reported.

What the candidates said

"Brazil needs change. Brazil can't stand so much suffering," the 45-year-old senator told reporters at the Rio de Janeiro voting centre where he cast his ballot, AP reported.

Lula, 80, who is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, said after voting in São Bernardo do Campo: "What is at stake is the future of Brazil," according to Reuters. The BBC reported he warned that the choice was between democracy and "barbarism".

Flávio Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The BBC reported that Jair Bolsonaro's wife, Michelle, was elected to the Senate on Sunday.

Three weeks to win the centre

Both men now have three weeks to reach moderate voters. Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos, two candidates who drew about 5.3 million votes combined, have previously said they will not endorse either candidate in the runoff, AP reported.

The campaign was shaped by the cost of living, crime and corruption. Reuters reported that federal police are investigating Bolsonaro for money laundering in connection with the collapsed Banco Master case, and that he has dismissed the allegations.

Lula's allies have warned that the Trump administration might refuse to recognise the result if he wins, while the US has rejected claims of interference, Reuters said. The head of Brazil's electoral court, Kassio Nunes Marques, said there was "no concrete indication of international interference," according to AP and France 24.

The next presidential term begins on January 5, 2027.